The Leipzig Declaration
As independent scientists researching atmospheric and climate problems, we -- along with many of our fellow citizens -- are apprehensive about the Climate Treaty conference scheduled for Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997. This gathering of politicians from some 160 signatory nations aims to impose -- on citizens of the industrialized nations, but not on others -- a system of global environmental regulations that include quotas and punitive taxes on energy fuels.
Fossil fuels provide today's principal energy source, and energy is essential for all economic growth. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide -- the announced goal of the Climate Treaty -- would require that fuel use be cut by as much as 60 to 80 percent -- worldwide!
In a world in which poverty is the greatest social pollutant, any restriction on energy use that inhibits economic growth should be viewed with caution. We understand the motivation to eliminate what are perceived to be the driving forces behind a potential climate change; but we believe the emerging Kyoto protocol -- to curtail carbon dioxide emissions from only part of the world community -- is dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive jobs and standards-of-living.
More to the point, we consider the scientific basis of the 1992 Global Climate Treaty to be flawed and its goal to be unrealistic. The policies to implement the Treaty are, as of now, based solely on unproven scientific theories, imperfect computer models -- and unsupported assumptions that catastrophic global warming follows from the burning of fossil fuels and requires immediate action. We do not agree. We believe that the dire predictions of a future warming have not been validated by the existing climate record. These predictions are based on nothing more than theoretical models and cannot be relied on.
As the debate unfolds, it has become increasingly clear that -- contrary to the conventional wisdom -- there does not exist today a general scientific consensus about the importance of greenhouse warming from rising levels of carbon dioxide. In fact, many climate specialists now agree that actual observations from weather satellites show no global warming whatsoever -- in direct contradiction to computer model results.
Historically, climate has always been a factor in human affairs -- with warmer periods, such as the medieval "climate optimum," playing an important role in economic expansion and in the welfare of nations that depend primarily on agriculture. Colder periods have caused crop failures, and led to famines, disease, and other documented human misery. We must, therefore, remain sensitive to any and all human activities that could affect future climate.
However, based on all the evidence available to us, we cannot
subscribe to the politically inspired world view that envisages climate
catastrophes and calls for hasty actions. For this reason,
we consider the drastic emission control policies likely to be endorsed by
the Kyoto conference -- lacking credible support from the underlying science
-- to be ill-advised and premature.
This statement is based on the International Symposium on the Greenhouse Controversy, held in Leipzig, Germany on November 9-10, 1995, under the sponsorship of the Prime Minister of the State of Saxony. For further information, contact the Europaeische Akademie fuer Umweltfragen (fax: 011-49-7071-72939) or The Science & Environmental Policy Project in Fairfax, Virginia (fax: (703) 352-7535). Or visit the website <http://www.his.com/~sepp>.
Signers:
Abrams, Elliot - Penn State University
Apel, John - John Hopkins University
Aubrey, David - Woods Hole Ocean. Inst.
Badura, Leslaw - Univ. Kattositz, Polland
Balling, Robert - Arizona State University
Barrett, Jack - Kingston-upon-Thames, U.K.
Bauer, Ernst-Waldemar - Esslingen, Germany
Berg, Hermann - Sachsisch Akad., Jena, Germany
Berning, Warren - New Mexico State University
Boe, Bruce A. - Atm. Resource Brd. ND
Bottcher, C.J. Frits, The Hague
Bourne, Arthur - University of London
Bruce, Larry
Brown, Norman M.D., University of Ulster
Bye, Matthew - Meterologist, San Francisco
Cain, Joseph - Florida State University
Clube, S.V.M. - University of Oxford
Courtney, Richard - Epsom, U.K.
Csanady, G.T - Old Dominion University
Cunningham, Robert M. - Meterologist, Lincoln, MA
Decker, Fred - Meterologist, Corvalis, OR
de Freitas, Chris, University of Auckland
Del Re, Giuseppe Rom.
Dietze, Peter - Nurnberg, Germany
Dyer, Rosemary - Phillips Lab
Eddington, Lee W., Naval Air Warfare Center
Ellsaesser, Hugh - Livermore National Laboratory
Emsley, John, Imperial Collage
Frank, Neil - Fmr. Dir. Hurricane Center
Franzle, Otto - Univ. Kiel, Germany
Gaynor, John E. - Envir. Tech. Lab., Boulder, CO
Gerholm, Tor Ragnar - Univ of Stockholm
Gleeson, Thomas A. - Aeronomist, Florida State Univ.
Gold, Thomas - Cornell University
Goodell, H.G. - University of Virginia
Goodridge, James D. - Climatologist, Mendocino, CA
Groeber, Richard F. - Weather Service, Springfield, OH
Guttman, Nathaniel B. - Climate Center, Asheville, NC
Hales, J. Vern - Meterologist, Las Vegas, NV
Handler, Paul, University of Illinois
Harnapp, Vern, University of Akron
Hayden, Howard C. - Univ. of Connecticut
Heyke, H.H. - Lichtenwalde, Germany
Higastberger, Michael J. - University of Vienna
Hogan, A.W. - Jour. of Aerosols, Atm. Chem.
Hubbard, William, University of Arizona
Jaworski, Zbigniew, University of Warsaw
Kloke, Adolf - University of Berlin
Kohler, Max A. - Meterologist, Silver Spring, MD
Kolstad, George A. - Geophys., Laytonsville, MD
Korber, Erich - Univ. Tubingen, Germany
Kovach, Robert L. - Stanford University
Landscheidt, Theodor, Nova Scotia
Leep, Roy - Meterologist, Tampa, FL
Legates, David R. - University of Oklahoma
Lettau, Heinz H. - University of Wisconsin
Linden, Henry R. - Illinois Inst. of Technology
Lindzen, Richard, Mass. Inst. of Technology
Lischka, Gerd - Univ. Tubingen, Germany
Lodge, J.P. - Atmos. Chemist, Boulder, CO
Lunardini, Virgil, CRREL, Hanover, NH
Lunsford, R. Dwayne, Germantown, MD
Marquardt, Karl - Dornstadt-Auhausen, Germany
McVehil, George E. - Air Quality, Englewood, CO
Mellner, Dusan - Univ of Brno, Czech Republic
Metzner, Helmut - Tubingen, Germany
Michaels, Patrick - University of Virginia
Mitchell, William, Oxford University
Moene, Asmunn, Oslo, Norway
Mohry, Herbert - Leipzig, Germany
Neumann, Eberhard - Univ. Bielefeld, Germany
Nierenberg, William A. - Scripps Inst., LaJolla
Nolte, Dieter - Stadt, Krankenhaus, Reichenhall, Germany
Oberhammer, Heinz - Univ, Tubingen, Germany
Porch, William - Colorado State University
Priem, Harry, University Of Utrecht
Reifsnyder, W.E. - Yale University
Robertson, Alexander, Univ. Of Newfoundland
Schmidlin, Thomas, Kent State University
Schuh, William, ND State Water Comm.
Seitz, Frederick - Rockefeller University
Sestak, Zdnek - Univ of Prague
Sharp, Gary D., Ctr for Climate/Ocean Resource Study
Singer, Fred - Science & Environmental Policy Project
Stange, Karl - Ludwigshafen, Germany
Starheim, Fred, Kent State University
Starr, Chauncey - Electrical Power Research Inst., Palo Alto
Steinmetz, E. - Essen, Germany
Stevenson, Robert E., IFARNS/IAPSO
Stout, Glenn E. - University of Illinois
Stroke, George - Max Planck Inst., Munich
Sundermann, Heinz - University of Vienna
Sussman, Brian - Meterologist, San Francisco, CA
Sutton, George H. - Prof. Emeeritus, Univ of Hawaii
Svidersky, Vladimir - Sechonoc Institute, Moscow
Talwani, M. - Rice University
Torrance, Thomas F. - Jena, Germany
Van Sumere, Christaan - Univ of Gent, Belgium
Vonnegut, Bernard - SUNY, Albany
Wentworth, Robert C., Geoophys. Oakland, CA
Worzel, J. Larmar - Meterologist, Wilmington, NC
Wyrtki, Klaus, University of Hawaii
Zwiener, Ulrich - Univ. Jena, Germany
Meteorologists
Apuzzo, Richard, WXIX-TV
Bernier, Andre, WJW-TV
Bernier, Sally, WJW-TV
Breckm, Robert, WVUE-TV
Colby, A.J., WICU-TV
Frank, Neil, KHOU-TV
Gantz, Dick, Weather Forecasting Service
Goddard, Dick, WJW-TV
Hollett, Shane, WJW-TV
Johnson, Mark, WEWS-TV
Koontz, Mark, WJW-TV
Leep, Roy, WTVT-TV
Loufman, Jon, WKYC-TV
Maly, Dan, WOIO-TV
McPike, Ryan, WICU-TV
Moore, James T., KSWO-TV
Sussman, Brian, KGO-TV
Sussman, Brad, WEWS-TV
Watts, Anthony, HSL-TV
Webster, Don, WEWS-TV
Westfall, Brian, Weather Forecasting Service
Williams, Jerry A., Meteorologist Consultant
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